Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
73% | 27% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
73% | 27% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 3.5 Games | 73% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 64% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 63% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 62% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? | 61% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 58% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 52% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 52% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Game 2 Winner | 50% |
| Game 4 Winner | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 49% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 49% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 49% |
| Game 3 Winner | 48% |
| Game 1 Winner | 47% |
| Match Winner | 46% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 44% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 44% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 42% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 42% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 42% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 40% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 40% |
| Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (+1.5) | 37% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 36% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? | 33% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 29% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 27% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 27% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Game Handicap: JDG (-2.5) vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (+2.5) | 16% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 13% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: ninjas in pyjamas vs jd gaming (bo5) - lpl playoffs stands at 73% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket round 1 match between Ninjas in Pyjamas and JD Gaming in the LPL Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 5, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. Thi…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2026%20A%2022%2028%200%200%201%2054%2026%22%20fill%3D%22%23fbbf24%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
and%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2018%20Q%2016%204%2026%2010%20Q%2020%202%2032%206%20Q%2044%202%2038%2010%20Q%2048%204%2054%2018%22%20stroke%3D%22%23fbbf24%22%20stroke-width%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22none%22%20stroke-linecap%3D%22round%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Trade LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play… on World Cup 2026 Favorites
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →