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LoL: PCIFIC vs Dark Passage (BO5) - TCL Playoffs

How the prediction market is pricing "LoL: PCIFIC vs Dark Passage (BO5) - TCL Playoffs" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Match Winner 82% Game 3 Winner 74% Game 2 Winner 72% Game 4 Winner 71% Volume: $68K Liquidity: $12K Closes: 1 Sept 2026
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LoL: PCIFIC vs Dark Passage (BO5) - TCL Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
82% 18% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
82% 18% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner82%
Game 3 Winner74%
Game 2 Winner72%
Game 4 Winner71%
O/U 3.5 Games70%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon60%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon60%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon60%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon58%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon58%
Game Handicap: PCIFIC (-1.5) vs Dark Passage (+1.5)53%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor53%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor52%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors52%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors52%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills49%
Game 1 Winner45%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor40%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors40%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor40%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor40%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors39%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors39%
Any Player Quadra Kill38%
Any Player Quadra Kill38%
Any Player Quadra Kill38%
Any Player Penta Kill37%
Any Player Penta Kill37%
Any Player Penta Kill37%
Game Handicap: PCIFIC (-2.5) vs Dark Passage (+2.5)30%
O/U 4.5 Games25%

Market context

The LoL: PCIFIC vs Dark Passage (BO5) - TCL Playoffs prediction market currently prices this outcome at 82% YES. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between PCIFIC and Dark Passage in the TCL Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for LoL: PCIFIC vs Dark Passage (BO5) - TCL Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
and

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