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LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs

How the prediction market is pricing "LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Both Teams Slay a Dragon 80% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 80% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 80% O/U 3.5 Games 74% Volume: $96K Liquidity: $554K Closes: 12 Sept 2026
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LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 80% 20% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 80% 20% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Both Teams Slay a Dragon80%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon80%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon80%
O/U 3.5 Games74%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?55%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?55%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?54%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor53%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor53%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?53%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors52%
Any Player Quadra Kill52%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors52%
Any Player Quadra Kill52%
Any Player Penta Kill52%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
First Blood in Game 3?50%
First Blood in Game 1?50%
Game 4 Winner49%
Game 1 Winner48%
Game 2 Winner48%
Game 3 Winner48%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?47%
Match Winner46%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon45%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon44%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?41%
First Blood in Game 4?40%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?39%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?37%
O/U 4.5 Games35%
Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5)34%
Game Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5)32%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor17%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor16%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor16%
Game Handicap: MKOI (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5)16%
Game Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Movistar KOI (+2.5)13%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors12%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors12%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors12%

Market context

LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs — current market-implied probability: 80%. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket quarterfinal 2 match between Team Vitality and Movistar KOI in the LEC Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 12, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This market wil…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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