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LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana

How the prediction market is pricing "LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Both Teams Slay a Dragon 57% Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? 57% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 56% Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 1? 55% Volume: $117K Liquidity: $363K Closes: 13 Aug 2026
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LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
57% 43% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
57% 43% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Both Teams Slay a Dragon57%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?57%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon56%
Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 1?55%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?55%
Any Player Penta Kill52%
Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 1?52%
First Blood in Game 1?51%
Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 2?51%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 2?50%
O/U 2.5 Games49%
Game 1 Winner48%
Game 2 Winner47%
Match Winner47%
First Blood in Game 2?44%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?42%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?41%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor37%
Game Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+1.5)30%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor25%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors24%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors24%
Game Handicap: WB (-1.5) vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (+1.5)23%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 57% YES probability for LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana. This market refers to the LoL match between Weibo Gaming and Ninjas in Pyjamas in the LPL Group Nirvana, initially scheduled for August 13 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Weibo Gaming" if …

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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