Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
71% | 29% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
71% | 29% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 71% |
| O/U 6.5 | 63% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 57% |
| O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| NRFI | 46% |
| Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants | 45% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 45% |
| O/U 8.5 | 42% |
| Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 34% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 33% |
| Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 26% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 25% |
| Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| Extra Innings | 9% |
Market context
The Colorado Rockies and San Francisco Giants meet at Oracle Park in a game shaped more by availability than by headline talent. San Francisco has a cluster of absences that cuts across the lineup and catching depth, with Casey Schmitt, Daniel Susac, Jesus Rodriguez, Marcelo Mayer and Harrison Bader all listed out, while Willy Adames is also being monitored with a back issue[1][4][8]. Colorado’s list is equally disruptive, with Kyle Karros, Tyler Freeman, Jaden Hill, Sean Sullivan, Chase Dollander and Kris Bryant among the notable names unavailable[1][5].
The price around 45% for the Rockies looks broadly consistent with a one-game spot where neither side is close to full strength, but the Giants still carry the cleaner home edge and the more stable recent structure[7][9]. Head-to-head context matters less than the current roster state, though Kyle Freeland’s track record at Oracle Park is a relevant comparator: he has made 12 starts there with a 3.84 ERA, which keeps Colorado live if his command holds[7].
The main catalyst is the final batting order and whether Adames is cleared to play after being listed day-to-day, because that changes San Francisco’s offensive ceiling and middle-infield defence[5][8]. For Colorado, late status updates on Freeman and the bullpen group matter most, given the number of arms already sidelined and the strain that places on leverage usage[1][5]. The market also remains exposed to any delay or postponement, since a makeup game would keep the event open until completion.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $104K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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