Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
81% | 19% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
81% | 19% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 81% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 70% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 59% |
| O/U 8.5 | 57% |
| NRFI | 53% |
| O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals | 40% |
| O/U 10.5 | 40% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 34% |
| Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| Spread -1.5 | 29% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 26% |
| Spread -2.5 | 21% |
| Extra Innings | 8% |
Market context
The Colorado Rockies and St. Louis Cardinals meet again with the market leaning to St. Louis at 40% YES for Colorado, which is broadly in line with a road underdog profile rather than a dead-even matchup. The recent series results matter: the Cardinals won 3-2 on 7 August, but the Rockies bounced back with an 8-6 win on 8 August, so the head-to-head picture is not one-way despite Colorado’s weaker season record.[2][5][8]
The longer frame still favours St. Louis. The Cardinals have a strong all-time edge over Colorado, 135-112 overall, and their home record in the matchup is 77-47.[10] Busch Stadium has also been a difficult venue for the Rockies, with the Cardinals going 49-19 at home against them since the park opened, according to CBS Sports’ game tracker, which is the kind of venue-specific split traders often weight more heavily than season-long records.[2] Colorado’s broader form remains poor, with a losing road mark and a high runs-allowed profile in recent games.[5][15]
The main catalysts are lineup status and whether either side rests regulars after the back-to-back games in St. Louis. Recent injury notes have already flagged several availability questions, including Rockies names such as Kris Bryant and Jaden Hill, while the Cardinals have had their own absences and day-to-day issues around players such as Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker and Ramón Urías.[4][15] Because this market stays open if the game is postponed and only resolves 50-50 if there is no make-up, the key dependency is whether the scheduled August 9 first pitch is actually played to completion.[2]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $106K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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