Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| NRFI | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels | 0% |
| Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 0% |
| Extra Innings | 0% |
| O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| O/U 6.5 | 0% |
| Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Los Angeles Angels defeated the Detroit Tigers 3–2 in their most recent meeting on 19 July, snapping a four-game losing streak with RBI hits from Jorge Soler and Zach Neto while Ryan Johnson pitched five solid innings [1]. This outcome reverses a trend where the Tigers had dominated the pair earlier in the season, including a 4–0 victory in May where Spencer Torkelson homered and five pitchers combined for a two-hitter [3][6]. Despite the Tigers’ strong form since June—winning 11 of 14 games and moving within 5½ games of the AL Central leader—they have lost nine of their last 11 overall and dropped six consecutive series, their longest such drought since 2021 [2][3]. The 0% crowd-implied probability for a Tigers win reflects this recent fragility against the Angels, who have now won two of their last three encounters despite their own struggles.
Traders should monitor starting pitcher announcements for both clubs, particularly any updates on Tigers reliever Brant Hurter (back) and Angels pitcher Bailey Horn (elbow), both expected to be unavailable through at least 23–25 July [13]. The Angels’ recent resurgence hinges on Soler and Neto’s offensive consistency, while the Tigers’ ability to close tight games remains questionable after Keider Montero’s narrow 2–1 win over the Angels on 17 July [8]. Head-to-head, the Angels hold a slight edge in the last 10 meetings, having won 6 of those games, including a 10–6 victory in May where Vaughn Grissom hit a grand slam [7]. Any delay or postponement will keep the market open, but a cancellation or tie would force a 50–50 resolution, making weather and umpire decisions critical dependencies.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $830K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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