Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
74% | 26% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
74% | 26% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 74% |
| O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 61% |
| O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| NRFI | 49% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners | 46% |
| O/U 8.5 | 45% |
| Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 31% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 27% |
| Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 24% |
| Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| Extra Innings | 8% |
Market context
The Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners meet in a regular-season game with the market sitting close to a coin flip at 46% for Detroit, which is broadly consistent with a short home-favourite price rather than a strong edge either way.[1][3][5] Recent betting screens have leaned slightly towards Seattle, with moneyline ranges around Mariners -126 to -155 and Tigers +104 to +144, while totals have sat in the 7.5 to 8.0 range, suggesting traders expect a relatively tight, lower-scoring game rather than a slugfest.[2][4][5][11]
That framework matters because this has already priced as a matchup where small line-up or pitching changes can move the number quickly. The teams have been trading around the middle of the standings in the most recent market snapshots, and earlier comparable meetings between them also opened with Seattle favoured in several spots, even when Detroit pulled some short-price support at home or in tighter spots.[1][9][10][15] In other words, a 46% Detroit read is not far from the broader market view, but it leaves room for a meaningful swing if the pre-game board moves against Seattle’s starter or late line-up news breaks.
Traders should watch the confirmed starting pitchers, any rest-day scratches, and whether either club posts a weaker-than-expected order near first pitch, because the current price band is narrow enough for one absence to matter.[5][11][16] The game is set for 4:10pm ET on 6 August, with the market remaining live only if it is postponed and then completed; if it is cancelled outright or ends level, the contract resolves 50-50.[1][5]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $80K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
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