Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
84% | 16% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
84% | 16% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 84% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 73% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 62% |
| NRFI | 55% |
| O/U 9.5 | 52% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 40% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles | 37% |
| Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| O/U 11.5 | 35% |
| Spread -1.5 | 27% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 24% |
| Spread -2.5 | 20% |
| Extra Innings | 8% |
Market context
The Los Angeles Angels and Baltimore Orioles meet again with the market sitting at 37% for an Angels win, which still leaves Baltimore as the clearer side on recent evidence. The clubs split their June series in Anaheim, but the Orioles took the first two games before the Angels rallied to win 7-6 in 10 innings, and Baltimore then answered with a 3-1 victory on 4 August. That recent run matters because the head-to-head has tilted Baltimore’s way over a larger sample too: Baltimore has gone 21-6 against Los Angeles since 2022, according to CBS Sports, which helps explain why a sub-40% Angels price is not out of line even after one good result for Los Angeles.[5][3][8]
Recent form points in the same direction. As of the latest available game notes, Baltimore had won 17 of its previous 27 and was still in the AL wild-card race despite trading several key players before the deadline, while the Angels had lost 10 of 12 before their Sunday win over Milwaukee.[2] For this game, CBS Sports listed Angels left-hander Reid Detmers as the opener, noting he had not won in his last seven starts and that Los Angeles went 0-5 in his July starts, although he has been more effective historically against Baltimore.[7] That creates a clear trader focus: whether the Angels stick with that pitching plan, whether any late line-up rest follows a day game, and whether Baltimore’s post-deadline roster still carries enough offence to convert recent pressure into runs.[7][2]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $49K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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