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Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros

How the prediction market is pricing "Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 82% 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 69% 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 64% 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 59% Volume: $410K Liquidity: $787K Closes: 7 Jul 2026
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Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
82% 18% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
82% 18% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
1st 5 Innings O/U 2.582%
1st 5 Innings O/U 3.569%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.564%
1st 5 Innings Spread -2.559%
O/U 8.555%
NRFI54%
1st 5 Innings O/U 4.553%
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros44%
O/U 9.543%
1st 5 Innings O/U 5.542%
Spread -1.538%
1st 5 Innings O/U 6.533%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.531%
1st 5 Innings Spread -2.513%
Extra Innings12%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 82% probability to minnesota twins vs. houston astros. In the upcoming MLB game between the Minnesota Twins and Houston Astros, scheduled for June 29 at 8:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Minnesota Twins" if the Minnesota Twins win the game. This m…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 at 82% for "Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros".

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 82% Other 18%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $410K.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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Related Topics

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