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MLB: Most Home Runs (Team)

How the prediction market is pricing "MLB: Most Home Runs (Team)" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Team D 51% Team A 50% Team B 50% Team C 50% Volume: $563K Liquidity: $105K Closes: 11 Oct 2026
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MLB: Most Home Runs (Team)

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
51% 49% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
51% 49% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Team D51%
Team A50%
Team B50%
Team C50%
Team E50%
Other50%
New York Yankees37%
Washington Nationals17%
Houston Astros14%
Los Angeles Dodgers14%
Chicago White Sox11%
Chicago Cubs4%
Philadelphia Phillies4%
Atlanta Braves3%
Arizona Diamondbacks2%
Boston Red Sox2%
Cleveland Guardians2%
Colorado Rockies2%
Kansas City Royals2%
Miami Marlins2%
New York Mets2%
San Diego Padres2%
San Francisco Giants2%
St. Louis Cardinals2%
Tampa Bay Rays2%
Baltimore Orioles1%
Cincinnati Reds1%
Los Angeles Angels1%
Milwaukee Brewers1%
Minnesota Twins1%
Athletics1%
Pittsburgh Pirates1%
Seattle Mariners1%
Texas Rangers1%
Toronto Blue Jays1%
Detroit Tigers0%

Market context

Market consensus: 51% chance of mlb: most home runs (team). Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market will resolve according to the team that hits the most home runs during the 2026 MLB Regular Season. If two teams tie for the most home runs, this market will resolve i…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for MLB: Most Home Runs (Team). Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
and

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