New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the third game of a three-game MLB series between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on Saturday, 27 June 2026, with the Red Sox having already won the first two matches. The crowd-implied probability of 0% for a Yankees victory is an extreme outlier, suggesting the market treats Gerrit Cole’s pitching as insufficient to overcome a two-game deficit and the Red Sox’s current momentum. Historically, such near-zero probabilities in MLB series often precede a “bounce-back” upset when a star pitcher like Cole faces a rested lineup, yet the Red Sox’s dominance in this specific series (winning 10-4 and 6-3 in Games 1 and 2) makes this a rare case where form, not just reputation, drives the line.

Traders must watch for immediate injury updates, particularly Giancarlo Stanton’s status on the Yankees’ 10-day injured list, which could alter the offensive depth if he is unexpectedly activated before the 1:10 PM ET start. The Red Sox have confirmed their Saturday matinee lineup includes Yoshida as the designated hitter and Rafaela in the field, while the Yankees’ injury report lists Travis MacGregor (60-day IL) and Trent Grisham (10-day IL) as unavailable, limiting their bench options. A recent CBS Sports analysis notes the Red Sox’s claim of the first two games but highlights Cole’s role in the Yankees’ attempt to bounce back, making his pitching performance the single most critical catalyst for any probability shift in the final hours before settlement.

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Methodology

This page reviews New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.