Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
79% | 21% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
79% | 21% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 79% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 67% |
| Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| O/U 8.5 | 56% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 54% |
| NRFI | 48% |
| O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| O/U 10.5 | 38% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 32% |
| Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox | 30% |
| Spread -1.5 | 22% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 21% |
| Spread -2.5 | 14% |
| Extra Innings | 7% |
Market context
The Athletics and Boston Red Sox meet again after Boston’s 13-1 win on Friday, a result that extended the Red Sox’s winning run to nine and underlined the gap in recent form. Boston have also taken the season series 3-1 so far, while the Athletics have gone 1-9 across their last 10 games, making a 30% crowd price for an A’s win look more like a live underdog than a coin flip. [1][3][5][11]
Recent comparable meetings have generally favoured Boston, but the earlier games in the series were tighter than Friday’s blow-out: the Red Sox won 4-2 on 27 July, the Athletics won 4-3 on 28 July, and Boston then edged 5-4 on 30 July. That mix matters because it shows the market is not pricing a single outlier, but a broader form edge for Boston against a team that has been outscored heavily over the last 10 days. [9][11][16]
The main catalysts are starting pitching confirmation and any line-up changes after a high-scoring, short-rest sequence. Friday’s match featured Payton Tolle for Boston and Jack Perkins for the Athletics, and the scheduled starter quality has already been a clear separator in this series; if either club changes arms or rests regulars, the number should move quickly. Boston’s recent surge has been built on strong run prevention and a hot top half of the order, while the Athletics’ path to an upset is usually tied to scoring early and forcing a bullpen game. [1][4][5][19]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $78K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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