Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Minnesota United FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| San Diego FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Minnesota United FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| San Diego FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Minnesota United FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| San Diego FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Minnesota United FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| San Diego FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Minnesota United FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Minnesota United FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| San Diego FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| San Diego FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Minnesota United FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| San Diego FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| San Diego FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Minnesota United FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Minnesota United FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| San Diego FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Minnesota United’s 1-1 draw with San Diego FC on 1 August leaves the “more markets” set on a narrow knife-edge rather than a dead 0% shot, because the matchup has already produced both tight, low-scoring and open, high-scoring versions in recent seasons. The head-to-head is split by game state more than by venue: San Diego won 4-2 at Minnesota in June 2025, Minnesota answered with a 3-1 league win in September 2025, and San Diego then edged the Loons 1-0 in the 2025 Western Conference semi-finals before Minnesota won 2-1 in San Diego in April 2026. That pattern supports a market that can flip quickly on team news, especially with both clubs capable of winning possession battles and turning the same fixture into different game scripts.[1][2][7][9][11]
For traders, the main catalysts are the usual late lineup confirmations: availability of creators and finishers, any late defensive absences, and whether either side rotates after a crowded run-in. Minnesota went into the match with reported injuries to Nico Romero and doubts over Nectar Triantis, while Carlos Harvey was also listed as sidelined in AP’s pre-match injury notes; San Diego’s recent team news has centred more on squad depth and managing a strong attacking core around Anders Dreyer and Hirving Lozano.[3][6] The line will move most if either club confirms a weakened back line or if one of the key attacking names is limited, because San Diego’s ball-dominant profile and Minnesota’s relatively modest recent scoring output have already pointed to a fixture where one marginal team-sheet change can alter the full slate of “more markets”.[3][6]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Minnesota United FC vs. San Diego FC - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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