Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Nashville SC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Nashville SC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Nashville SC (-1.5) | 0% |
| CF Montréal (-1.5) | 0% |
| Nashville SC (-2.5) | 0% |
| CF Montréal (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Nashville SC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Nashville SC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CF Montréal O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CF Montréal O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CF Montréal O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Nashville SC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Nashville SC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CF Montréal 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CF Montréal 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Nashville SC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CF Montréal 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CF Montréal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Nashville SC host CF Montréal in MLS, and the market’s 0% YES price looks far more extreme than the underlying matchup history. Nashville have had the better of this fixture over time: in 12 meetings they have seven wins to Montréal’s one, with four draws, and recent H2H trends have often been one-sided rather than chaotic.[4] Flashscore’s H2H feed also shows Montréal have failed to score in both halves in the last eight league meetings with Nashville, while Nashville have won five of the last eight when they have scored at least once.[1]
That historical shape matters because “More Markets” props in MLS usually need either a late team-news swing or a lopsided game state to move materially. The last completed meeting at Stade Saputo finished 0-0, so the fixture has shown both a tight floor and a strong Nashville edge depending on venue and availability.[3] With Soccerway listing Nashville as a clear home favourite on average odds, the base case is that any extra-market YES angle needs a catalyst beyond generic attacking expectation.[2]
The main trader watchpoints are the final line-ups, any late injury or suspension news, and whether either side rotates because of scheduling pressure before kick-off. A missing Nashville starter in attack or a weakened Montréal back line would be the kind of dependency that can rapidly change “More Markets” pricing, especially if the market is tied to goals, cards, or corners rather than the match result itself. The most relevant live reference remains the team sheets released close to kick-off, because the current 0% YES implies the market is already assuming a very unfavourable combination of line-up and game-state outcomes.[1][2]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Nashville SC vs. CF Montréal - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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