Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| New England Revolution (-1.5) | 0% |
| Toronto FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| New England Revolution (-2.5) | 0% |
| Toronto FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| New England Revolution O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| New England Revolution O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| New England Revolution O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Toronto FC O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Toronto FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Toronto FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| New England Revolution 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| New England Revolution 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Toronto FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Toronto FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| New England Revolution 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| New England Revolution 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Toronto FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Toronto FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
New England Revolution’s home meeting with Toronto FC sits in a familiar MLS matchup pattern: recent results have generally tilted towards tight, low-margin games rather than one-sided blowouts. The pair drew 1-1 at Gillette Stadium in September 2025, while New England also beat Toronto 2-0 in May 2025, which frames any “more markets” angle around whether this one stays controlled or opens up late.[2][4] With the crowd-implied probability at 0% YES, the market is signalling that no qualifying side-market is currently priced as likely, so historical scorelines matter mainly as a guide to how quickly in-game volatility can arrive if the match state changes.[2][4]
For traders, the key catalysts are the confirmed line-ups, any late injury withdrawals, and the usual MLS rotation risk around a midweek fixture, especially if either side is managing minutes or returning players from knocks. Toronto and New England have both had recent fixtures that can affect selection and intensity, and the live market will likely react most to whether both first-choice forwards start and whether either defence is forced into changes at the back. The main price-moving news to watch is the official team sheet release close to kick-off, plus any pre-match reporting on absences, because a single attacking omission can materially alter total-goals and both-teams-to-score style side markets.[1][3]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for New England Revolution vs. Toronto FC - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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