Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
81% | 19% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
81% | 19% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 221.5 | 81% |
| O/U 224.5 | 76% |
| O/U 227.5 | 71% |
| O/U 230.5 | 64% |
| O/U 232.5 | 60% |
| O/U 233.5 | 58% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 57% |
| Ausar Thompson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 56% |
| O/U 235.5 | 54% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 1.5 | 54% |
| O/U 236.5 | 52% |
| Bobby Portis: Assists O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Pistons vs. Heat | 51% |
| O/U 237.5 | 51% |
| Ausar Thompson: Points O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Ausar Thompson: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| John Collins: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| John Collins: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Cade Cunningham: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Bobby Portis: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Bobby Portis: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Ausar Thompson: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ausar Thompson: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ausar Thompson: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Cade Cunningham: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Cade Cunningham: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Cade Cunningham: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ausar Thompson: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ausar Thompson: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ausar Thompson: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Duren: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Duren: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| O/U 238.5 | 48% |
| Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| Bobby Portis: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Bobby Portis: Assists O/U 2.5 | 45% |
| Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| O/U 240.5 | 43% |
| Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 15.5 | 42% |
| Bobby Portis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 34.5 | 41% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 41% |
| John Collins: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 41% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 4.5 | 41% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 9.5 | 40% |
| Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 19.5 | 40% |
| John Collins: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 40% |
| Cade Cunningham: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| Davion Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 24.5 | 38% |
| Jalen Duren: Points O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| O/U 243.5 | 37% |
| Spread -5.5 | 36% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 36% |
| Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 7.5 | 36% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 11.5 | 36% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Spread -5.5 | 35% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 35% |
| Ausar Thompson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 35% |
| Cade Cunningham: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 8.5 | 34% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 5.5 | 34% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| Jalen Duren: Points O/U 29.5 | 34% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5 | 34% |
| Jalen Duren: Assists O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| John Collins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 34% |
| Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 23.5 | 33% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 9.5 | 33% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 33% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 33% |
| John Collins: Assists O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 28.5 | 32% |
| Duncan Robinson: Points O/U 10.5 | 32% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 44.5 | 32% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| Bobby Portis: Points O/U 9.5 | 32% |
| O/U 246.5 | 31% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 17.5 | 30% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| Ausar Thompson: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 30% |
| Ausar Thompson: Assists O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| Spread -7.5 | 29% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 29.5 | 29% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 24.5 | 28% |
| Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 39.5 | 28% |
| Cade Cunningham: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 28% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Spread -8.5 | 27% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 29.5 | 27% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 39.5 | 27% |
| Ausar Thompson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 27% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 27% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 27% |
| Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 27% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 2.5 | 27% |
| Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 9.5 | 27% |
| Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 26% |
| O/U 249.5 | 25% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 14.5 | 25% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 25% |
| Bobby Portis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 24% |
| Jalen Duren: Assists O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 19.5 | 23% |
| Jalen Duren: Points O/U 19.5 | 23% |
| Cade Cunningham: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| John Collins: Points O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 22% |
| Davion Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| Ausar Thompson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 21% |
| John Collins: Assists O/U 1.5 | 21% |
| Spread -11.5 | 20% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 4.5 | 20% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 19% |
| Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 19% |
| Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| John Collins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| Bobby Portis: Points O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 17% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 11.5 | 16% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 7.5 | 16% |
| Bobby Portis: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 16% |
| Ausar Thompson: Points O/U 14.5 | 15% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 29.5 | 14% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 14% |
| Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 14% |
| John Collins: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Bobby Portis: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Bobby Portis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 14.5 | 13% |
| Cade Cunningham: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| John Collins: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| Cade Cunningham: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Bobby Portis: Points O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| Jalen Duren: Points O/U 24.5 | 12% |
| Ausar Thompson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Davion Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| John Collins: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| John Collins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| John Collins: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 34.5 | 9% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Cade Cunningham: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
Market context
Market consensus: 81% chance of pistons vs. heat. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 8:00PM ET: If the Pistons win, the market will resolve to "Pistons". If the Heat win, the market will resolve to "Heat". If th…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $72K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pistons vs. Heat. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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