Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey: Anytime Touchdown | 100% |
| Terry McLaurin: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 97% |
| Rachaad White: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 96% |
| George Kittle: Anytime Touchdown | 95% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 93% |
| Kaelon Black: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 93% |
| Rachaad White: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 93% |
| George Kittle: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 93% |
| Rachaad White: Anytime Touchdown | 93% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 92% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 92% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 92% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 92% |
| Brock Purdy: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 92% |
| Brock Purdy: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 92% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 92% |
| Kaelon Black: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 92% |
| Kaelon Black: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 92% |
| Rachaad White: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 92% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 92% |
| Mike Evans: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 92% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 92% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 92% |
| George Kittle: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 92% |
| Christian McCaffrey: 2+ Touchdowns | 92% |
| Mike Evans: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 91% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 90% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 90% |
| George Kittle: Team First TD (San Francisco 49ers) | 88% |
| Brock Purdy: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 82% |
| Brock Purdy: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 77% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 76% |
| George Kittle: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 76% |
| Mike Evans: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 76% |
| Mike Evans: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 65% |
| Mike Evans: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 65% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 63% |
| George Kittle: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 63% |
| George Kittle: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 63% |
| George Kittle: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 63% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 56% |
| Mike Evans: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 56% |
| Mike Evans: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 56% |
| Brock Purdy: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 54% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 51% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 51% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Yards O/U 99.5 | 51% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Yards O/U 124.5 | 51% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 51% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 51% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 51% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 51% |
| Jayden Daniels: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Kaelon Black: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Kaelon Black: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Rachaad White: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Rachaad White: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| Rachaad White: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 51% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| George Kittle: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Mike Evans: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| George Kittle: Longest Reception O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 51% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 51% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 51% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Completions O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Completions O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Completions O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Completions O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 50% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Brock Purdy: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Rushing Yards O/U 99.5 | 50% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Kaelon Black: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Kaelon Black: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Kaelon Black: Rushing Yards O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| George Kittle: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Mike Evans: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Mike Evans: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Mike Evans: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Mike Evans: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Mike Evans: Receptions O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Mike Evans: Receptions O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Kaelon Black: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Mike Evans: Longest Reception O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Attempts O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Completions O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Brock Purdy: Team First TD (San Francisco 49ers) | 50% |
| Chig Okonkwo: Team First TD (Washington Commanders) | 50% |
| Jayden Daniels: Team First TD (Washington Commanders) | 50% |
| Kaelon Black: Team First TD (San Francisco 49ers) | 50% |
| Mike Evans: Team First TD (San Francisco 49ers) | 50% |
| Terry McLaurin: Team First TD (Washington Commanders) | 50% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Team First TD (San Francisco 49ers) | 45% |
| Rachaad White: Team First TD (Washington Commanders) | 45% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 41% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Team First TD (Washington Commanders) | 41% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 35% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 26% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 26% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Completions O/U 21.5 | 26% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 25% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Attempts O/U 35.5 | 23% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 20% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| George Kittle: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 19% |
| George Kittle: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 19% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 18% |
| Brock Purdy: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 17% |
| Jayden Daniels: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 16% |
| Brock Purdy: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 16% |
| George Kittle: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 16% |
| Jayden Daniels: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 15% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 14% |
| Rachaad White: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 14% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 14% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Anytime Touchdown | 13% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 12% |
| Jayden Daniels: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 12% |
| George Kittle: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 11% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 10% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 9% |
| Jayden Daniels: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 9% |
| Jayden Daniels: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 9% |
| Mike Evans: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 9% |
| Chig Okonkwo: Anytime Touchdown | 9% |
| Jayden Daniels: Anytime Touchdown | 9% |
| Jayden Daniels: 2+ Touchdowns | 9% |
| Mike Evans: 2+ Touchdowns | 9% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Yards O/U 349.5 | 8% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 8% |
| Chig Okonkwo: 2+ Touchdowns | 8% |
| Mike Evans: Anytime Touchdown | 8% |
| Mike Evans: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 7% |
| George Kittle: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 7% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 6% |
| Rachaad White: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 6% |
| Rachaad White: 2+ Touchdowns | 5% |
| Terry McLaurin: Anytime Touchdown | 5% |
| Kaelon Black: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 3% |
| Jayden Daniels: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 2% |
| Jayden Daniels: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 2% |
| George Kittle: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 2% |
| George Kittle: Receptions O/U 7.5 | 2% |
| George Kittle: Receptions O/U 8.5 | 2% |
| Kaelon Black: Anytime Touchdown | 2% |
| Terry McLaurin: 2+ Touchdowns | 2% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Yards O/U 324.5 | 1% |
| Jayden Daniels: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 1% |
| Brock Purdy: Anytime Touchdown | 1% |
| Brock Purdy: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
| George Kittle: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, commanders vs. 49ers - player props stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. Player prop markets for the NFL game between the Commanders and 49ers, scheduled for October 19 at 8:15 PM ET.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Commanders vs. 49ers - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
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