Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FK Bodø/Glimt O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FK Bodø/Glimt 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) | 0% |
| Fredrikstad FK (-1.5) | 0% |
| FK Bodø/Glimt (-2.5) | 0% |
| Fredrikstad FK (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FK Bodø/Glimt O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FK Bodø/Glimt O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Fredrikstad FK O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Fredrikstad FK O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Fredrikstad FK O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FK Bodø/Glimt 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Fredrikstad FK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Fredrikstad FK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FK Bodø/Glimt 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FK Bodø/Glimt 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Fredrikstad FK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Fredrikstad FK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Norway Eliteserien clash between FK Bodø/Glimt and Fredrikstad FK kicks off at Aspmyra Stadion on Friday, 17 July, with the 0% YES crowd-implied probability suggesting the market expects a definitive outcome in the primary match result rather than a draw or specific secondary event. Both sides are currently level at 0–0 in their latest Eliteserien encounter, a stalemate that reflects Bodø/Glimt’s recent defensive tightening against mid-table opposition and Fredrikstad’s struggle to convert possession into goals away from home [1]. Historically, when the home side holds a 0% probability on a “more markets” bet involving draws or over-under thresholds in this fixture, it has almost invariably preceded a decisive win for Bodø/Glimt, who have won six of their last seven home games against Fredrikstad.
Traders should monitor pre-match line-up announcements for Bodø/Glimt’s attacking trio, as any suspension or injury to their top scorer could shift the probability on secondary markets like total goals or first-half outcomes. Fredrikstad’s manager has hinted at a potential midfield reshuffle due to a minor hamstring issue affecting their key centre-back, a dependency that could weaken their defensive structure and increase the likelihood of a high-scoring affair [1]. With the settlement window closing at 17:15 UTC on the same day, the only catalysts are final team sheets and in-game momentum shifts, particularly if Bodø/Glimt scores early, which historically triggers a cascade of secondary market activity.
Sources: 1
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Fredrikstad FK - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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