Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Wisla Krakow O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Wisla Krakow O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Wisla Plock O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Wisla Krakow 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Wisla Krakow 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Wisla Plock 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Wisla Krakow (-1.5) | 0% |
| Wisla Plock (-1.5) | 0% |
| Wisla Krakow (-2.5) | 0% |
| Wisla Plock (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Wisla Krakow O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Wisla Plock O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Wisla Plock O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Wisla Plock 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Wisla Krakow 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Wisla Krakow 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Wisla Plock 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Wisla Plock 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Wisła Kraków meet Wisła Płock in the Polish Ekstraklasa at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana, and the market’s 0% YES pricing implies traders are not expecting the wider “more markets” bucket to settle through the game-state conditions that would usually generate extra event types. The fixture has a history of producing swings: their most recent head-to-heads have been tight, but the clubs have also shared one-sided scorelines in the past, so a single early goal or card burst can materially change which side markets become live. Wisła Kraków’s name recognition and home support often pull attention towards them, yet recent comparable meetings have not followed a fixed pattern, which is relevant when reading a zero-implied probability market.
The main catalysts are team-sheet news and late availability. Recent match coverage has shown Wisła Kraków involved in a 2-1 league win, while Wisła Płock have also arrived from competitive fixtures with momentum, including a 2-1 away win at Cracovia and a 3-1 victory over Kraków in earlier head-to-head play.[6][4][7] The line to watch is whether either side rotates after a busy start to the season, because changes to the first-choice striker, goalkeeper or holding midfield positions can shift the likelihood of corners, cards and goal-related derivatives more than headline form does. Any late injury or suspension absence would matter most if it affects set-piece delivery or defensive discipline, since those are the quickest ways for an otherwise quiet match to open up extra settlement paths.[1][13]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Wisla Krakow vs. Wisla Plock - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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