Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Celtic FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 78% |
| Celtic FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 78% |
| Dundee FC O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Dundee FC O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Celtic FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Dundee FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Dundee FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Celtic FC O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Celtic FC O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| Celtic FC (-1.5) | 25% |
| Dundee FC O/U 0.5 | 9% |
| Both Teams to Score | 8% |
| O/U 2.5 | 5% |
| Celtic FC (-2.5) | 3% |
| O/U 3.5 | 2% |
| Dundee FC (-1.5) | 1% |
| Dundee FC (-2.5) | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Celtic FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Celtic FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Dundee FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Dundee FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Celtic’s league meeting with Dundee is a straightforward test of how much weight to give the champions’ historical edge against a fresh upset. Celtic have dominated the fixture for years, with one head-to-head source putting the record at 26 Celtic wins, five draws and no Dundee wins, while another shows Celtic unbeaten in 31 meetings before Dundee’s 2-0 victory in August 2025 ended a 36-game run without defeat in the matchup.[5][7] That makes a 25% “YES” price for the “more markets” side look like it is already discounting the possibility of a one-sided script, but not ignoring the fact that Dundee have recently shown they can frustrate Celtic and keep games tighter than the long-run series suggests.[7][11]
The read-through from comparable meetings is mixed rather than fully lopsided. Recent head-to-head data show Celtic still usually control these games, but Dundee’s August 2025 win and a 1-2 defeat in April 2026 show the gap is not immune to short-term variance.[19][20] Broader stats also point to a fixture that often clears into multi-goal territory: one H2H feed shows an average of 3.28 goals per direct match, while another lists several recent Celtic-Dundee games finishing at 3+ goals.[10][8] That supports treating the market as sensitive to early team news rather than relying only on old dominance.[10]
The key catalysts are the confirmed line-ups, any late fitness withdrawals and whether Celtic rotate around European or cup scheduling, because those are the factors most likely to alter goal expectation and shot volume before kick-off. Dundee’s recent results have included high-scoring draws and a heavy home defeat to Hearts, which makes defensive selection especially important if they carry any absences into this fixture.[11] For Celtic, the market will react most if first-choice attackers or centre-backs are missing, given their recent tendency to dominate possession and chance creation against Dundee in prior meetings.[9][11]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Celtic FC vs. Dundee FC - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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