Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| NK Radomlje (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Mura Murska Sobota O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| NK Radomlje O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| NK Radomlje O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| NK Radomlje O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| NK Radomlje 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Mura Murska Sobota 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| NK Radomlje 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| NK Radomlje 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Mura Murska Sobota (-2.5) | 1% |
| Mura Murska Sobota (-1.5) | 0% |
| NK Radomlje (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Mura Murska Sobota O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Mura Murska Sobota O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Mura Murska Sobota 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Mura Murska Sobota 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| NK Radomlje 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Mura Murska Sobota 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
NK Mura will host NK Radomlje in the Slovenian PrvaLiga on 10 August, with the match kicking off at 16:00 local time. The 0% probability assigned to "More Markets" suggests traders are either confident no additional betting options will be offered on this fixture, or the market itself has failed to gain traction. Settlement hinges on whether the host sportsbook expands its market menu beyond standard match outcomes before the 10 August deadline.
Historical precedent matters here. Slovenian PrvaLiga fixtures typically attract limited derivative-market activity compared to Western European leagues; secondary markets for individual matches often remain sparse unless the clubs involved carry regional significance or the fixture carries playoff implications. Mura, based in Murska Sobota in the north-east, and Radomlje, a smaller outfit from the Ljubljana periphery, lack the commercial pull of Ljubljana's dominant sides. Past seasons show that mid-table or lower-table PrvaLiga clashes rarely trigger expanded market offerings from major operators, which contextualises the current zero reading.
Traders should monitor official fixture confirmations and any late team news—suspensions or injuries to key players can occasionally prompt bookmakers to add markets if they sense volatility. The settlement window closes at 16:00 UTC on 10 August, leaving roughly six weeks for any announcements. Sportsbook expansion decisions typically depend on customer demand signals and competitive positioning; if rival platforms announce additional markets, followers often materialise quickly. Check official PrvaLiga communications and the host operator's market-update feeds for signals of intent.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Mura Murska Sobota vs. NK Radomlje - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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