Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
20% | 80% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
20% | 80% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Any Other Score | 20% |
| BK Hacken 1 - 1 AIK | 11% |
| BK Hacken 2 - 1 AIK | 10% |
| BK Hacken 1 - 0 AIK | 7% |
| BK Hacken 2 - 0 AIK | 7% |
| BK Hacken 1 - 2 AIK | 7% |
| BK Hacken 2 - 2 AIK | 7% |
| BK Hacken 3 - 1 AIK | 7% |
| BK Hacken 3 - 2 AIK | 5% |
| BK Hacken 0 - 1 AIK | 4% |
| BK Hacken 3 - 0 AIK | 4% |
| BK Hacken 0 - 0 AIK | 3% |
| BK Hacken 0 - 2 AIK | 3% |
| BK Hacken 1 - 3 AIK | 3% |
| BK Hacken 2 - 3 AIK | 3% |
| BK Hacken 3 - 3 AIK | 2% |
| BK Hacken 0 - 3 AIK | 1% |
Market context
BK Hacken travel to face AIK in the Swedish Allsvenskan on 27 July 2026, with the market pricing an exact scoreline at just 3% implied probability. The settlement window closes at 17:00 UTC on match day, allowing roughly 16 hours post-kick-off for final confirmation. Exact-score markets in league football typically compress heavily around the most frequent outcomes—1–1, 2–1, 1–0—whilst less common results trade at single-digit odds despite occurring in roughly 15–20% of matches across major European leagues.
Hacken and AIK have contrasting recent trajectories in Allsvenskan. AIK, Stockholm's traditional heavyweight, finished 2025 in mid-table but retain squad depth and European competition experience. Hacken, based in Gothenburg, have operated as a mid-tier side with inconsistent form; their home record and away record typically diverge sharply. Head-to-head records between these clubs show moderate goal-scoring variance, with scorelines ranging from 0–0 draws to 3–1 results over the past five seasons. Suspensions and injury lists for both squads should be confirmed 48 hours before kick-off; any absence of key attacking players would shift the distribution toward lower-scoring outcomes.
Traders should monitor team news releases from both clubs' official channels and Allsvenskan fixture announcements through mid-July. Weather conditions in Gothenburg—occasionally wet and windy—can suppress goal totals. The 1:00 PM ET start time (19:00 CET) falls within standard Swedish summer scheduling, reducing postponement risk. Any late-team changes or unexpected injuries announced within 72 hours of the match could materially alter the probability of specific scorelines, particularly if either side loses a regular striker or defensive anchor.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for BK Hacken vs. AIK - Exact Score. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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