Mjallby AIF vs. IK Sirius

Platform comparison

Market context

Mjallby AIF will host IK Sirius in the Swedish top division on 15 August 2026, with the 1% implied probability suggesting the market assigns minimal chance to a Sirius victory. The settlement window closes at 13:00 UTC on match day, requiring final odds movements to occur before kickoff. Sirius finished the 2025 campaign in mid-table, whilst Mjallby's recent trajectory has positioned them as stronger favourites in this fixture, reflected in the heavily skewed probability distribution.

Historical matchups between these sides reveal a competitive record that doesn't justify such extreme pricing. Over their last five encounters across Allsvenskan, results have split relatively evenly, with neither club establishing decisive dominance. Sirius have secured away victories at Mjallby's ground within the past three seasons, demonstrating capability to compete in this fixture despite current form differentials. The 1% probability sits at the extreme tail of realistic outcomes for a league match between mid-tier Allsvenskan sides, suggesting either significant recent deterioration in Sirius's squad or injury/suspension cascades affecting their availability.

Traders should monitor team news releases in the 48 hours preceding the match, particularly regarding Sirius's defensive availability and any late withdrawals from their starting XI. Mjallby's home record through July 2026 will provide crucial context; if they've struggled at their ground despite league position, the probability floor may be artificially low. Fixture congestion in the weeks prior—European qualification matches or cup competitions—could affect squad rotation decisions and fatigue levels, especially for Sirius if they're managing European commitments.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Mjallby AIF vs. IK Sirius. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.