Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Team to Advance | 100% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia (-1.5) | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia (-2.5) | 0% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
PFK CSKA Sofia will face Maccabi Tel Aviv in a UEFA Europa League qualifying round match on 13 August 2026. The fixture represents a two-legged tie typical of European competition's preliminary stages, with aggregate scoring determining progression. CSKA Sofia, Bulgaria's most decorated club with multiple domestic titles, competes regularly in European competitions but has struggled in recent qualifying campaigns. Maccabi Tel Aviv, Israel's dominant force with six league titles since 2014, qualified for this round after winning their domestic cup, though Israeli football's fixture congestion and security considerations often affect preparation schedules.
The 0% implied probability suggests traders are pricing this as a binary outcome market where only one specific result settles YES—likely a narrow scoreline or particular match event. Historical precedent matters here: CSKA Sofia's European record shows inconsistent performances against Israeli opposition, whilst Maccabi Tel Aviv's recent form in continental play has been mixed, with early exits in both Champions League and Europa League qualifying in recent seasons. Neither side enters as clear favourite based on recent European pedigree alone.
Traders should monitor team news releases through late July and early August, particularly regarding squad rotation and injury status after domestic league finales. Israeli fixture scheduling often compresses fixture lists before European commitments, potentially affecting player availability. CSKA Sofia's pre-season preparation and any late transfers will signal competitive intent. Confirmation of the exact match venue—Sofia or Tel Aviv for the first leg—typically arrives 10–14 days before the tie and influences tactical approaches and travel-related fatigue factors.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for PFK CSKA Sofia vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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