Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Ferencvárosi TC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Ferencvárosi TC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Ferencvárosi TC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Górnik Zabrze (-1.5) | 0% |
| Ferencvárosi TC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Górnik Zabrze (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Ferencvárosi TC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Ferencvárosi TC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Górnik Zabrze O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Górnik Zabrze O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Górnik Zabrze O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Ferencvárosi TC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Ferencvárosi TC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Górnik Zabrze 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Górnik Zabrze 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Ferencvárosi TC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Górnik Zabrze 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Górnik Zabrze 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Ferencvárosi TC host Górnik Zabrze in the first leg of their UEFA Europa League third-round qualifying tie at Groupama Aréna, with kick-off listed for 18:15 UTC and the return leg due in Zabrze on 13 August.[1][2][19] The market’s 0% YES price is only easy to read if this is a placeholder rather than a true in-play read, because the fixture itself is live and the underlying match state will matter more than pre-match sentiment once line-ups and early team news are known.[1][2]
The closest historical frame is Ferencváros’ recent European run: they beat Vojvodina 3-0, then took a 2-1 away win and a 2-2 home draw against Twente, while Górnik’s summer results have been less stable, including a 1-1 draw with Fenerbahçe, a 2-1 league win over Śląsk Wrocław, and a 1-3 defeat to Lech Poznań in the Super Cup.[15][11] There is no official head-to-head history to lean on, with Polish coverage noting this is their first competitive meeting, so traders have to place more weight on current form and venue effect than on precedent.[8]
The main catalysts are the confirmed line-ups, any late injury or suspension news, and whether Ferencváros can field the same attacking core that produced goals consistently in Europe this summer.[11][15] BBC’s live match listing shows the game as a current Europa League qualifier, which means the move-sensitive information will be the final team sheets and any unexpected absences rather than broad seasonal trends.[15] Górnik’s away record and Ferencváros’ home scoring pattern point to a game where a single personnel change at either end could move derivative markets sharply, especially if a first-choice forward or centre-back is ruled out late.[7][11]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Ferencvárosi TC vs. Górnik Zabrze - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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