Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
44% | 56% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
44% | 56% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Team to Advance | 44% |
| SK Iberia 1999 (-2.5) | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Larne FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Larne FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| SK Iberia 1999 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| SK Iberia 1999 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Larne FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| SK Iberia 1999 (-1.5) | 0% |
| Larne FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Larne FC O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Larne FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Larne FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| SK Iberia 1999 O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| SK Iberia 1999 O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| SK Iberia 1999 O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Larne FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Larne FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| SK Iberia 1999 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| SK Iberia 1999 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Larne’s Europa League tie with SK Iberia 1999 goes into the second leg level after a 0-0 draw at Inver Park, a result that reflected Larne’s territorial control more than clear-cut finishing. BBC’s live coverage said the home side dominated possession and had the better chances, but could not beat Giorgi Makaridze, while Iberia briefly thought they had scored before an offside flag intervened.[1] For a market priced at 0% YES on “more markets”, that first leg matters because it kept the tie finely balanced rather than giving either side a cushion, which usually leaves the next team-news update and early match incidents carrying outsized weight.[1][2]
The wider frame is mixed but useful. Larne’s recent European run has been open at both ends: they beat Tre Fiori 3-1 on aggregate before heavy losses to Red Star Belgrade, including 4-0 at Inver Park and 5-0 away, showing that their defensive level can shift sharply against stronger or more efficient opposition.[3][13] Iberia, by contrast, have already played several qualifiers this summer and were competitive away at Slovan Bratislava, drawing 1-1 in that second leg after a 2-1 home defeat, which suggests they can manage difficult away fixtures without folding.[3][13] There is no head-to-head history beyond this tie, so traders are mainly reading current form and the first-leg pattern rather than historical familiarity.[16]
The main catalysts are the line-ups and any late absences, because the first leg did not produce a decisive edge and both clubs have shown enough attacking volatility to swing ancillary markets on selection news alone.[1][6] BBC listed Larne’s second leg as scheduled for Tuesday 11 August in Tbilisi, while fixture pages also show the return leg as part of the same qualifying round, so venue and travel context still matter for how aggressively either side approaches the tie.[1][9] With the settlement window ending just before kick-off, any confirmation on starting strikers, goalkeeper choices, or late injuries should move prices more than broad season-long form.[5][6]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Larne FC vs. SK Iberia 1999 - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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