UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Card)

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Market context

Asu Almabayev officially defeated Charles Johnson at UFC Baku on 27 June 2026, securing the win via a Suloev Stretch submission in the flyweight bout. This result confirms the market’s 100% YES settlement for Almabayev, as the fight concluded decisively without a draw, technical stoppage, or no-contest ruling. The victory occurred at the National Gymnastics Arena in Baku, Azerbaijan, during the main card of UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs Torres [1][2][4].

Historically, flyweight bouts ending in early submissions have consistently resolved prediction markets with near-total certainty, mirroring cases where a fighter’s grappling superiority leads to a swift finish. In such scenarios, the market probability rarely fluctuates once the submission is confirmed, as the outcome is unambiguous and officially recorded by the UFC. Almabayev’s prior record includes multiple submission wins, reinforcing the pattern that his grappling edge dictates fight outcomes when opponents lack comparable defensive technique [1][6].

Traders should monitor official UFC post-fight announcements for any potential appeals or medical suspensions, though these rarely alter settled results once the submission is confirmed. The resolution source remains official UFC data, and no dependencies exist beyond the confirmed fight outcome. Recent coverage from Action Network noted Almabayev’s odds at -258, reflecting public confidence in his grappling prowess before the bout [1]. With the fight already concluded and the method verified, no further catalysts will shift the market’s settled position.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Card) across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.