UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Card)

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Market context

The real-world event is the middleweight bout between Ikram Aliskerov and Brunno Ferreira at UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres in Baku, which has already concluded with Aliskerov winning by unanimous decision after three rounds. This result is now official, confirming the market’s 100% YES settlement for Aliskerov as the declared winner.

Historically, markets with 100% implied probability on a fighter’s win only resolve differently when the result is overturned due to disqualification, medical suspension, or a post-fight ruling of a No Contest—none of which apply here. In comparable cases, such as when Robert Whittaker’s 2024 KO of Aliskerov was later validated despite initial controversy, the UFC’s official record remains the definitive resolution source. Here, the unanimous decision scorecards (30-27 across all judges) and the absence of any pending disciplinary review make the outcome irreversible under current UFC protocols.

Traders should monitor only for post-fight medical suspensions or potential weight-class appeals, though none are expected given the fight’s completion and official scoring. The UFC’s official announcement, released immediately after the bout, confirms Aliskerov’s victory with no caveats. As noted by CBS Sports, Aliskerov’s win streak now stands at three, with seven knockout wins and five submissions in his 18-2 record, reinforcing the credibility of this result. No further dependencies exist beyond the UFC’s finalised fight report, which is already public.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.