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UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)

How the prediction market is pricing "UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

O/U 0.5 Rounds 93% O/U 1.5 Rounds 90% O/U 2.5 Rounds 72% O/U 4.5 Rounds 72% Volume: $233K Liquidity: $306K Closes: 25 Oct 2026
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UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
93% 7% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
93% 7% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
— — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
— — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
— — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
O/U 0.5 Rounds93%
O/U 1.5 Rounds90%
O/U 2.5 Rounds72%
O/U 4.5 Rounds72%
Fight to Go the Distance?70%
O/U 3.5 Rounds68%
Fight won by decision?67%
Decision or Draw63%
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan42%
Fight won by KO/TKO?27%
Dvalishvili to win by KO/TKO?27%
Dvalishvili in Round 127%
Dvalishvili in Round 227%
Dvalishvili in Round 327%
Dvalishvili in Round 427%
Dvalishvili in Round 527%
Yan in Round 127%
Yan in Round 227%
Yan in Round 327%
Yan in Round 427%
Yan in Round 527%
Yan to win by KO/TKO?23%
Ends before Round 5?23%
Ends before Round 4?17%
Fight won by submission?14%
Ends before Round 3?12%
Ends before Round 2?9%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 93% YES probability for UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card). This market will resolve to "Merab Dvalishvili" if Merab Dvalishvili is officially declared the winner of the fight against Petr Yan at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026.…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices O/U 0.5 Rounds at 93% for "UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)".

O/U 0.5 Rounds 93% Other 7%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $233K.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card). Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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Related Topics

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