Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 93% |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 90% |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 72% |
| O/U 4.5 Rounds | 72% |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 70% |
| O/U 3.5 Rounds | 68% |
| Fight won by decision? | 67% |
| Decision or Draw | 63% |
| Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan | 42% |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 27% |
| Dvalishvili to win by KO/TKO? | 27% |
| Dvalishvili in Round 1 | 27% |
| Dvalishvili in Round 2 | 27% |
| Dvalishvili in Round 3 | 27% |
| Dvalishvili in Round 4 | 27% |
| Dvalishvili in Round 5 | 27% |
| Yan in Round 1 | 27% |
| Yan in Round 2 | 27% |
| Yan in Round 3 | 27% |
| Yan in Round 4 | 27% |
| Yan in Round 5 | 27% |
| Yan to win by KO/TKO? | 23% |
| Ends before Round 5? | 23% |
| Ends before Round 4? | 17% |
| Fight won by submission? | 14% |
| Ends before Round 3? | 12% |
| Ends before Round 2? | 9% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 93% YES probability for UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card). This market will resolve to "Merab Dvalishvili" if Merab Dvalishvili is officially declared the winner of the fight against Petr Yan at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026.…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $233K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card). Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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