UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Prelims)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Theodor Berggren and Daniil Donchenko are set to clash tonight at UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres in Baku, a welterweight prelim where Donchenko, a Ukraine-based fighter with a 13-2 record, faces Berggren, who enters as a late replacement for Andreas Gustafsson. Donchenko recently defeated Alex Morono by unanimous decision in February 2026, while Berggren is making his UFC debut against a seasoned TUF winner.

Historical precedents for late replacements in UFC prelims often see a significant drop in win probability, particularly when stepping up against fighters with recent decision wins and superior experience. In similar cases where a debutant faced a TUF alum with a winning streak, the market-implied probability for the replacement rarely exceeded 15%, aligning with the current 0% YES for Berggren, as the line heavily favours Donchenko’s TKO potential.

Traders should monitor the official UFC broadcast for any pre-fight weight discrepancies or medical suspensions, as Donchenko’s recent TKO prediction by The Stats Zone suggests a high likelihood of an early finish. Any announcement regarding Berggren’s physical condition or Donchenko’s fight-night readiness, as noted in Kalshi’s market terms, could shift the settlement outcome, though the resolution source remains official UFC data. Cite The Stats Zone’s preview for the TKO prediction.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.