Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map Handicap: BBL (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs BBL Esports (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BBL Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs BBL Esports (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs BBL Esports (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-3.5) vs Team Vitality (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-4.5) vs Team Vitality (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-5.5) vs Team Vitality (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-6.5) vs Team Vitality (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-7.5) vs Team Vitality (+7.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-8.5) vs Team Vitality (+8.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-3.5) vs Team Vitality (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-5.5) vs Team Vitality (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-4.5) vs Team Vitality (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-6.5) vs Team Vitality (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-7.5) vs Team Vitality (+7.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: team vitality vs bbl esports (bo3) - vct emea group alpha stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant match between Team Vitality and BBL Esports in the VCT EMEA Group Alpha, initially scheduled for July 19 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve …
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Valorant: Team Vitality vs BBL Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
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