Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
68% | 32% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
68% | 32% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Atlanta Dream vs. Washington Mystics | 68% |
| Spread -4.5 | 56% |
| Spread -5.5 | 54% |
| O/U 169.5 | 53% |
| O/U 170.5 | 52% |
| O/U 171.5 | 48% |
| Sonia Citron: Assists O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Kiki Iriafen: Assists O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Rhyne Howard: Points O/U 16.5 | 33% |
| Kiki Iriafen: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 31% |
| Rhyne Howard: Assists O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Allisha Gray: Points O/U 17.5 | 31% |
| Allisha Gray: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Shakira Austin: Assists O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Shakira Austin: Points O/U 17.5 | 28% |
| Sonia Citron: Points O/U 16.5 | 28% |
| Kiki Iriafen: Points O/U 15.5 | 28% |
| Allisha Gray: Assists O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Rhyne Howard: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 27% |
| Allisha Gray: Points O/U 18.5 | 26% |
| Rhyne Howard: Points O/U 17.5 | 26% |
| Sonia Citron: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| Shakira Austin: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 25% |
| Angel Reese: Points O/U 15.5 | 24% |
| Angel Reese: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 23% |
| Angel Reese: Assists O/U 2.5 | 23% |
Market context
The Atlanta Dream host the Washington Mystics in a regular-season WNBA game, with the market leaning towards an Atlanta win at 68%. That price is broadly consistent with the recent head-to-head split: the teams traded results earlier this season, with Washington edging Atlanta 81-76 on 2 July, before Atlanta responded with a 109-77 blowout in June, and the longer series history is close rather than one-sided.[3][6][12]
For context, this is the sort of market where recent form and line-up availability matter more than season-long reputation. ESPN’s game page lists Atlanta absences, including Brionna Jones, Jacy Sheldon and Georgia Amoore, all marked out, which is important because the Dream’s pricing will be sensitive to whether their rotation is stretched again.[15] Washington’s latest win over Atlanta came despite a messy offensive line from the Mystics, who still forced turnovers and got strong interior production from Shakira Austin and Kiki Iriafen.[3][6]
Traders should watch the final pre-match injury report and any late roster notes, because the settlement depends on the completed game and overtime counts, while a postponement keeps the market open.[15] If there is any further absence news, the probability can move quickly: Atlanta have shown they can score at a high level when their main creators are available, but the Mystics have already demonstrated this season that they can beat them when the Dream’s defensive cover slips.[2][3][15]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $75K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Atlanta Dream vs. Washington Mystics. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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