Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 171.5 | 100% |
| Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| O/U 173.5 | 100% |
| O/U 175.5 | 100% |
| O/U 176.5 | 100% |
| O/U 177.5 | 100% |
| Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| Kamilla Cardoso: Points O/U 12.5 | 98% |
| Leïla Lacan: Assists O/U 4.5 | 98% |
| Leïla Lacan: Points O/U 11.5 | 91% |
| Aneesah Morrow: Points O/U 11.5 | 91% |
| Olivia Nelson-Ododa: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 91% |
| Kamilla Cardoso: Points O/U 13.5 | 91% |
| Aneesah Morrow: Points O/U 12.5 | 91% |
| Olivia Nelson-Ododa: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 91% |
| Natasha Cloud: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Sydney Taylor: Points O/U 16.5 | 10% |
| Natasha Cloud: Points O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Azurá Stevens: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| Natasha Cloud: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Leïla Lacan: Points O/U 12.5 | 10% |
| Aneesah Morrow: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 10% |
| Sydney Taylor: Points O/U 17.5 | 10% |
| Kamilla Cardoso: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 10% |
| Natasha Cloud: Assists O/U 6.5 | 10% |
| Charlisse Leger-Walker: Assists O/U 4.5 | 10% |
| Kamilla Cardoso: Assists O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Kamilla Cardoso: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 2% |
| Aneesah Morrow: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 2% |
| Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky | 0% |
| Azurá Stevens: Points O/U 13.5 | 0% |
Market context
Connecticut Sun vs Chicago Sky is a late-July WNBA regular-season meeting between two teams that have struggled for consistency, which helps explain why the crowd price has sat at a near-zero belief in one outcome rather than a balanced 50-50 read. The most recent head-to-head between the sides was lopsided: Connecticut beat Chicago 92-63 on 22 June, a result that also highlighted how strongly the Sun can swing this matchup when their shot-making and rebounding edge shows up. Earlier in June, though, Chicago had already beaten Connecticut 85-80, so the series has not been one-way this season.[1][5][10][14]
Form coming into the game was weak on both sides, but Chicago had the cleaner recent scoring line in the listings, while Connecticut had just come off heavy defeats, including a 123-88 loss to Indiana and a 92-84 loss to Washington.[7] ESPN’s game page also showed both teams sitting near the bottom of the conference, with Connecticut at 7-21 and Chicago at 9-18, which is the sort of profile that can make a market overreact to one-sided recent box scores if rotation news changes late.[2][7] For traders, the key catalysts are the confirmed starting line-ups and any late injury updates, especially around ball-handling and interior defence; ESPN’s preview on 5 June had already flagged Chicago absences in the backcourt and frontcourt, including Courtney Vandersloot and Gabriela Jaquez, showing how quickly availability can reshape this fixture.[14]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $283K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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