Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
80% | 20% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
80% | 20% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Golden State Valkyries vs. Portland Fire | 80% |
| Spread -5.5 | 64% |
| Spread -6.5 | 57% |
| Megan DiLeo: Points O/U 14.5 | 52% |
| Tiffany Hayes: Points O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Bridget Carleton: Points O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Veronica Burton: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Emily Engstler: Points O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Kayla Thornton: Points O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Bridget Carleton: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Megan DiLeo: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Kayla Thornton: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Veronica Burton: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Veronica Burton: Assists O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Emily Engstler: Assists O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tiffany Hayes: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Tiffany Hayes: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Veronica Burton: Points O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Tiffany Hayes: Points O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Kayla Thornton: Points O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Tiffany Hayes: Points O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Emily Engstler: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 49% |
| Bridget Carleton: Assists O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Kaitlyn Chen: Assists O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| O/U 157.5 | 48% |
| O/U 158.5 | 45% |
| O/U 159.5 | 43% |
Market context
The Golden State Valkyries vs. Portland Fire prediction market currently prices this outcome at 80% YES. In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for August 30 at 7:00PM ET: If the Golden State Valkyries win, the market will resolve to "Golden State Valkyries". If the Portland Fire win, the market will resol…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $144K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Golden State Valkyries vs. Portland Fire. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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