Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| National Bank Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Shuai Zhang | 94% |
| National Bank Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Shuai Zhang Set 2 Winner | 88% |
| National Bank Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Shuai Zhang Set 1 Winner | 86% |
| National Bank Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Shuai Zhang Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 76% |
| National Bank Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Shuai Zhang Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 54% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Shuai Zhang Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Shuai Zhang Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Shuai Zhang Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Shuai Zhang Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Shuai Zhang Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Shuai Zhang Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Shuai Zhang Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Shuai Zhang Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 32% |
| National Bank Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Shuai Zhang Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 21% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, national bank open: aryna sabalenka vs shuai zhang stands at 94% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Aryna Sabalenka and Shuai Zhang in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 6, 2026 at 7:00PM ET. This market will re…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for National Bank Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Shuai Zhang. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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