Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 92% |
| CA Osasuna O/U 0.5 | 81% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 75% |
| O/U 1.5 | 72% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 68% |
| Levante UD O/U 0.5 | 62% |
| CA Osasuna 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 60% |
| CA Osasuna 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| CA Osasuna O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Levante UD 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| Levante UD 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 34% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| CA Osasuna (-1.5) | 26% |
| O/U 3.5 | 25% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 25% |
| Levante UD O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| CA Osasuna 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| CA Osasuna O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 18% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| CA Osasuna 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 15% |
| Levante UD 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 12% |
| CA Osasuna (-2.5) | 11% |
| O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Levante UD (-1.5) | 7% |
| Levante UD O/U 2.5 | 7% |
| Levante UD 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 6% |
| O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Levante UD (-2.5) | 2% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 92% probability to ca osasuna vs. levante ud - more markets. More markets for the La Liga game, scheduled for August 24 at 1:30 PM ET.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for CA Osasuna vs. Levante UD - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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