Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
81% | 19% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
81% | 19% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 81% |
| Game 1 Winner | 73% |
| Game 2 Winner | 73% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 58% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 57% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 57% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 56% |
| Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) | 54% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 48% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 45% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 44% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 44% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 43% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 43% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 43% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 40% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 40% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 39% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 31% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 31% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 81% YES probability for LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs. This market refers to the LoL Quarterfinal 4 match between Bilibili Gaming and Dplus KIA in the Esports World Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 17 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
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