Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
77% | 23% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
77% | 23% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 77% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 65% |
| O/U 7.5 | 60% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 54% |
| O/U 8.5 | 52% |
| NRFI | 50% |
| Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers | 45% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| Spread -1.5 | 32% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 31% |
| Spread -2.5 | 29% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 27% |
| Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| Extra Innings | 9% |
Market context
The Chicago White Sox travel to Detroit on 14 August for an evening fixture against the Tigers, with the market currently pricing the White Sox at 45 per cent likelihood of victory. Both clubs are operating well below .500 at this stage of the season, though their trajectories and roster depth differ materially. The White Sox have endured a particularly difficult campaign, whilst Detroit has shown marginal improvement in recent weeks despite persistent competitive disadvantages.
Historical matchups between these AL Central rivals offer limited predictive value given the volatility of mid-season form, but the head-to-head record this season favours neither side decisively. More relevant are the recent performance trends: the White Sox's offensive production has remained anaemic, whilst Detroit's pitching staff has shown inconsistency against comparable opposition. Injury status and lineup availability become critical variables—any late absences among key contributors could shift the implied probability meaningfully, particularly if either side loses depth at catcher or infield positions.
Traders should monitor roster announcements through 13 August for any suspensions, injuries, or unexpected roster moves. Starting pitcher confirmation typically arrives 24 hours before game time; Detroit's rotation depth remains questionable, whilst Chicago's pitching assignments have been subject to recent changes. Weather conditions at Comerica Park on game day—particularly wind direction and temperature—historically favour certain offensive profiles. The settlement window extends to 21 August, allowing for postponement resolution should weather intervene.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $119K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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