Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers face off at Comerica Park in Detroit this Saturday, 27 June 2026, with first pitch at 1:10 p.m. ET. The market currently implies a 0% chance of the Astros winning, a stark figure that mirrors historical patterns where teams with severe injury crises and poor recent form are heavily discounted against home sides with pitching advantages. In comparable MLB matchups, a 0% implied probability often precedes outcomes where the favoured side’s starting pitcher dominates, or the underdog’s lineup is decimated by key absences, rendering the contest one-sided before the first ball is thrown.

Traders must monitor the Astros’ confirmed starting pitcher for Saturday, as the team’s rotation is in flux following multiple injuries, including Carlos Correa on the 60-day list with an ankle tendon injury and Lance McCullers Jr. sidelined with a rotator cuff impingement[2]. The Tigers, meanwhile, feature Framber Valdez on the mound, who holds a 3.91 ERA, and their recent home form contrasts sharply with the Astros’ 20-23 away record[3]. Crucially, Jeremy Peña leads the Astros in recent production with a .371 batting average over the last ten games, yet the team’s overall slugging average of .377 and 10 homers in that span suggest limited offensive firepower against Valdez[1]. Any late announcement regarding the Astros’ starting pitcher or further lineup scratches could solidify the Tigers’ dominance, as the market already reflects a near-certain outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.