Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the MLB game between the Miami Marlins and St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium on 26 June, where the Marlins won 1–0 in a delayed contest that ended with a single run[6]. This 100% YES crowd-implied probability for the Marlins reflects a decisive outcome already sealed, not a speculative forecast, making the market effectively settled rather than open for trading.

Historically, when a game concludes with a clear winner before the settlement window closes, markets resolve immediately without further volatility, as seen in similar MLB cases where delayed games still produced definitive results[1][3]. The Marlins’ recent form supports this resolution: they won four of their last five games, including two straight against Texas, while the Cardinals lost three of their last five, including back-to-back defeats to Arizona[3]. Key injuries further skewed the line; Liam Hicks (back) and Janson Junk (shin) were on the Marlins’ injured list, yet the team still prevailed, whereas the Cardinals’ Ramón Urías (elbow) and Ryan Fernandez (back) remained sidelined, weakening their offensive depth[2][4].

Traders should monitor official final statistics from MLB.com to confirm the resolution source, as any tie or cancellation would trigger a 50–50 split, though the 1–0 score eliminates that risk[7]. No new announcements are expected, given the game’s completion, but weather updates or umpire decisions could influence future delayed games if similar conditions arise[6]. The primary catalyst is the confirmation of the Marlins’ win via the official final stats, which will resolve the market without delay[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.