Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Philadelphia Phillies, sitting 46-36, face the New York Mets, who are 34-48 and have lost seven consecutive games, in an NL East showdown at Citi Field this Saturday at 4:10 p.m. ET. The 39% crowd-implied probability for a Phillies win reflects a stark contrast in recent form: the Phillies have hit 17 homers over their last 10 games with a .494 slugging percentage, while the Mets are averaging just 2.6 extra-base hits per outing and slugging .412. Historical parallels to the Mets’ 2025 collapse and their current 14-game deficit under .500 suggest that even a returning pitcher like Christian Scott may not immediately reverse their trajectory against a veteran Phillies lineup led by Bryce Harper, who is batting .421 over the same stretch.

Traders should monitor the immediate impact of Christian Scott’s reinstatement from the 15-day injured list for the Mets, as he posted a 3.10 ERA through nine starts before his hip impingement sidelined him since June 12. The Mets also fired manager Carlos Mendoza on Friday, replacing him with Andy Green, a change that could alter in-game decision-making during this critical NL East matchup. Additionally, the Phillies’ Johan Rojas remains on the 60-day injured list with an elbow injury, though his absence has not dented their offensive output, which includes Kyle Schwarber’s five homers and seven walks in the past 10 games. With the settlement window ending on 4 July 2026, any postponement would keep the market open until the game is completed, making weather forecasts and pitching line-up confirmations on Saturday morning the primary catalysts for price movement.

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Methodology

This page reviews Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.