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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies

How the prediction market is pricing "Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 75% 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 61% O/U 8.5 51% Spread -1.5 50% Volume: $161K Liquidity: $649K Closes: 7 Jul 2026
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
75% 25% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
75% 25% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
1st 5 Innings O/U 2.575%
1st 5 Innings O/U 3.561%
O/U 8.551%
Spread -1.550%
NRFI49%
1st 5 Innings O/U 4.548%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.547%
1st 5 Innings O/U 5.536%
1st 5 Innings Spread -2.534%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies33%
1st 5 Innings O/U 6.524%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.517%
1st 5 Innings Spread -2.510%
Extra Innings10%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 75% probability to pittsburgh pirates vs. philadelphia phillies. In the upcoming MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies, scheduled for June 30 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win t…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 at 75% for "Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies".

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 75% Other 25%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $161K.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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Related Topics

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