Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
77% | 23% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
77% | 23% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 224.5 | 77% |
| O/U 227.5 | 72% |
| O/U 230.5 | 66% |
| O/U 233.5 | 60% |
| O/U 235.5 | 55% |
| O/U 236.5 | 54% |
| O/U 237.5 | 53% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| Bulls vs. Bucks | 50% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| O/U 238.5 | 49% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 24.5 | 48% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 34.5 | 48% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 11.5 | 48% |
| Caleb Wilson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 15.5 | 47% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 47% |
| Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 45% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 45% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 45% |
| O/U 240.5 | 44% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 19.5 | 44% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 29.5 | 44% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 24.5 | 43% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 14.5 | 43% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| O/U 241.5 | 42% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 5.5 | 41% |
| Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 29.5 | 40% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| O/U 243.5 | 38% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 19.5 | 37% |
| Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 36% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 36% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 35% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 8.5 | 35% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 39.5 | 35% |
| Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 4.5 | 34% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 34.5 | 34% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 34% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 33% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 33% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 33% |
| O/U 246.5 | 32% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 13.5 | 32% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 10.5 | 32% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 14.5 | 32% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 32% |
| Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 23.5 | 31% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 17.5 | 31% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 15.5 | 31% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 19.5 | 31% |
| Myles Turner: Points O/U 11.5 | 30% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 19.5 | 29% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 29% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 29% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 24.5 | 28% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 29.5 | 28% |
| O/U 249.5 | 27% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 27% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 27% |
| Caleb Wilson: Assists O/U 2.5 | 27% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 27% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 9.5 | 27% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 24.5 | 26% |
| Spread -9.5 | 25% |
| Spread -9.5 | 24% |
| Overtime? | 24% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 14.5 | 24% |
| O/U 252.5 | 22% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 19.5 | 20% |
| Spread -12.5 | 19% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 24.5 | 19% |
| Spread -12.5 | 17% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Spread -15.5 | 13% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 13% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 77% probability to bulls vs. bucks. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 4:00PM ET: If the Bulls win, the market will resolve to "Bulls". If the Bucks win, the market will resolve to "Bucks". If the game is postponed, t…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $108K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Bulls vs. Bucks. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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