Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| King Felipe VI | 100% |
| Mikie Sherrill | 100% |
| Kathy Hochul | 100% |
| David Beckham | 100% |
| Tom Brady | 100% |
| Sean Duffy | 100% |
| Marco Rubio | 100% |
| Drake | 100% |
| Serena Williams | 100% |
| Timothée Chalamet | 100% |
| Antonela Roccuzzo | 100% |
| Zinedine Zidane | 100% |
| Mark Carney | 100% |
| Claudia Sheinbaum | 100% |
| Javier Milei | 0% |
| Rupert Murdoch | 0% |
| Pam Bondi | 0% |
| Kristi Noem | 0% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 0% |
| Elon Musk | 0% |
| Jeff Bezos | 0% |
| LeBron James | 0% |
| Kim Kardashian | 0% |
| Leonardo DiCaprio | 0% |
| Bad Bunny | 0% |
| Rosalía | 0% |
| Rafael Nadal | 0% |
| Pep Guardiola | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to world cup final: who will attend?. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual attends the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Attending the match is defined as being in physical atte…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for World Cup Final: Who Will Attend?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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