Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Orgryte IS (-1.5) | 0% |
| Djurgardens IF (-1.5) | 0% |
| Orgryte IS (-2.5) | 0% |
| Djurgardens IF (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Orgryte IS O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Orgryte IS O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Orgryte IS O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Djurgardens IF O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Djurgardens IF O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Djurgardens IF O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Orgryte IS 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Orgryte IS 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Djurgardens IF 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Djurgardens IF 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Orgryte IS 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Orgryte IS 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Djurgardens IF 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Djurgardens IF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Örgryte IS faces Djurgardens IF at Gamla Ullevi in an Allsvenskan fixture scheduled for 20 July 2026, where Djurgardens enter as clear favourites with a 6–1–4 record compared to Örgryte’s 2–3–7 standing. Pre-match models assign Djurgardens a 57.73% win probability, while Örgryte’s road struggles and defensive frailties limit their chances to just 20.11% [1][3]. The 0% crowd-implied probability for the “YES” outcome in this more markets contract aligns with historical patterns where underdogs with poor away form rarely trigger specific secondary bets against top-tier opponents in this division.
Djurgardens’ superior attacking threat and solid away record have consistently driven odds against weaker sides, making them strong favourites in similar head-to-head matchups [6]. Traders should monitor final squad announcements for any suspensions or injuries, particularly in Djurgardens’ midfield, as their 4–2–3–1 system relies heavily on central control [4]. Recent form suggests both teams tend to score and concede, pointing toward a multi-goal game, but the absence of line-up surprises or late tactical shifts will likely keep secondary market probabilities anchored near zero until kickoff [6]. No major news updates have emerged as of early 21 July, so the settlement window remains dependent on the match unfolding without unexpected catalysts.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Orgryte IS vs. Djurgardens IF - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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