Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
56% | 44% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
56% | 44% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Dumas in Round 1 | 56% |
| Decision or Draw | 56% |
| Dumas in Round 2 | 54% |
| Dumas in Round 3 | 54% |
| Gall in Round 1 | 53% |
| Ends before Round 2? | 52% |
| Gall in Round 2 | 52% |
| Gall in Round 3 | 52% |
| Mickey Gall vs. Sedriques Dumas | 51% |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 51% |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 51% |
| Ends before Round 3? | 51% |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 50% |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 50% |
| Dumas to win by KO/TKO? | 50% |
| Fight won by submission? | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 50% |
| Fight won by decision? | 49% |
| Gall to win by KO/TKO? | 46% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, ufc fight night: mickey gall vs. sedriques dumas (middleweight, prelims) stands at 56% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market will resolve to "Mickey Gall" if Mickey Gall is officially declared the winner of the fight against Sedriques Dumas at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos, schedule…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $117K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for UFC Fight Night: Mickey Gall vs. Sedriques Dumas (Middleweight, Prelims). Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
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