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UFC 333: Ramazan Temirov vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)

How the prediction market is pricing "UFC 333: Ramazan Temirov vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

O/U 0.5 Rounds 87% O/U 1.5 Rounds 66% O/U 2.5 Rounds 52% Fight won by KO/TKO? 49% Volume: $96K Liquidity: $282K Closes: 25 Oct 2026
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UFC 333: Ramazan Temirov vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
87% 13% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
87% 13% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
— — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
— — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
— — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
O/U 0.5 Rounds87%
O/U 1.5 Rounds66%
O/U 2.5 Rounds52%
Fight won by KO/TKO?49%
Ramazan Temirov vs. Lone'er Kavanagh48%
Fight to Go the Distance?44%
Fight won by decision?43%
Ends before Round 3?43%
Decision or Draw43%
Temirov to win by KO/TKO?32%
Ends before Round 2?25%
Kavanagh to win by KO/TKO?17%
Temirov in Round 116%
Temirov in Round 211%
Fight won by submission?10%
Kavanagh in Round 110%
Temirov in Round 39%
Kavanagh in Round 28%
Kavanagh in Round 37%

Market context

The UFC 333: Ramazan Temirov vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card) prediction market currently prices this outcome at 87% YES. This market will resolve to "Ramazan Temirov" if Ramazan Temirov is officially declared the winner of the fight against Lone'er Kavanagh at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices O/U 0.5 Rounds at 87% for "UFC 333: Ramazan Temirov vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)".

O/U 0.5 Rounds 87% Other 13%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $96K.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for UFC 333: Ramazan Temirov vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card). Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
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Related Topics

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