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UFC Fight Night: Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Yazmin Jauregui (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)

How the prediction market is pricing "UFC Fight Night: Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Yazmin Jauregui (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

O/U 0.5 Rounds 73% O/U 1.5 Rounds 66% Fight to Go the Distance? 62% Fight won by decision? 62% Volume: $88K Liquidity: $120K Closes: 27 Sept 2026
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UFC Fight Night: Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Yazmin Jauregui (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
73% 27% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
73% 27% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
— — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
— — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
— — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
O/U 0.5 Rounds73%
O/U 1.5 Rounds66%
Fight to Go the Distance?62%
Fight won by decision?62%
Decision or Draw62%
O/U 2.5 Rounds61%
Fight won by KO/TKO?32%
Ends before Round 3?32%
Demopoulos in Round 127%
Jauregui in Round 127%
Demopoulos in Round 226%
Demopoulos in Round 326%
Jauregui in Round 226%
Jauregui in Round 326%
Demopoulos to win by KO/TKO?25%
Fight won by submission?25%
Jauregui to win by KO/TKO?22%
Ends before Round 2?18%
Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Yazmin Jauregui13%

Market context

Market consensus: 73% chance of ufc fight night: vanessa demopoulos vs. yazmin jauregui (women's strawweight, prelims). Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market will resolve to "Vanessa Demopoulos" if Vanessa Demopoulos is officially declared the winner of the fight against Yazmin Jauregui at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barc…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices O/U 0.5 Rounds at 73% for "UFC Fight Night: Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Yazmin Jauregui (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)".

O/U 0.5 Rounds 73% Other 27%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $88K.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for UFC Fight Night: Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Yazmin Jauregui (Women's Strawweight, Prelims). Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
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Related Topics

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