Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs MIBR LOS (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs MIBR LOS (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-4.5) vs MIBR LOS (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-5.5) vs MIBR LOS (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-6.5) vs MIBR LOS (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-9.5) vs MIBR LOS (+9.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-8.5) vs MIBR LOS (+8.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-7.5) vs MIBR LOS (+7.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs MIBR LOS (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-5.5) vs MIBR LOS (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-4.5) vs MIBR LOS (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 97% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 93% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs MIBR LOS (+2.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-7.5) vs MIBR LOS (+7.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-6.5) vs MIBR LOS (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-8.5) vs MIBR LOS (+8.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs MIBR LOS (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-3.5) vs 100 Thieves (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-4.5) vs 100 Thieves (+4.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: MIBR LOS (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs MIBR LOS (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-11.5) vs MIBR LOS (+11.5) | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Valorant: 100 Thieves vs MIBR LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs. This market refers to the Valorant Quarterfinal 4 match between 100 Thieves and MIBR LOS in the Esports World Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 10 at 9:45AM ET. This market will resolve to "…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Valorant: 100 Thieves vs MIBR LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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